Wednesday, December 28, 2011

Rose Bowl Thoughts....

I'm a homer.  I'm biased.  I'm a Duck.  But those aren't the only reasons why I think Oregon will break the Rose Bowl curse this year and start moving forward as an elite college program.  I simply don't see how Wisconsin matches up with Oregon.

QB: Darron Thomas v. Russell Wilson.  Yes, DT has been "inefficient" this year.  Or has he?  Looking back on the season, Thomas has taken the read out of the read option by handing off to LMJ or Kenjon almost every option.  So, from a running standpoint, he's been incredibly inefficient.  But passing-wise, Thomas has done everything and more Oregon could ask of him.  Yes, he gets amped up when the game starts.  Yes, he sometimes overthrows a receiver.  But the majority of his interceptions this season were on tipped balls.  Can't blame that on DT.  He also comes up big when the team needs him the most.  Plus, he has been playing on not one, but two bum knees.

Wilson however, is the closest thing the Big 10 has to a star.  He left a fledgling NC State program to play one year up in Madison, and has reaped the benefits.  He was the country's highest rated passer this season.  He's made a living out of the play action pass.  He's also incredibly nimble and agile.  I also think he may be the key to Wisconsin's offense in this game.  If he has time to throw, Wisconsin will score points on the young Ducks secondary.


RB: LaMichael James/Kenjon Barner v. Montee Ball.  There is no comparison here.  I know Montee Ball was invited to the Heisman Trophy awards ceremony this year.  I know he scored an insane amount of TDs.  But he's also not half the runner that either LMJ or Kenjon is.  That's the honest truth.  LMJ had 3 games this season over 200 yards rushing.  LaMichael also finished 113 yards behind Ball, while missing 3 games due to an elbow injury.  To put this in perspective:  if LMJ would have matched Ball carry for carry, he would have finished with an NCAA leading 2038 yards rushing.

Ball is big, and dangerous inside the 10, but that's really all there is.  He had 32 rushing TDs this year, almost entirely in the red zone.  He doesn't have breakaway speed.  He literally just runs behind a massive O-line and takes 5 yards a pop.  He also hasn't played a defense as quick as the Ducks, although he did face Michigan State twice (with little success may I add).


Oregon's WR's are young and don't get enough credit for what they do within the offense, which is seal the edge block for big plays out of the zone read.  You can't measure their downfield blocking prowess statistically, so I can't really compare their impact against Wisconsin's.  I can say that Wisconsin's DB's are simply not as fast as the Oregon WR's (DeAnthony Thomas and Josh Huff).  If these guys get the ball in space, one on one against a DB, it's going to be 6.

Oregon's defensive unit is young, scrappy and plays fast.  The edge rush combo of Josh Kaddu and Dion Jordan is going to be hard for a large O-line to stop, especially when they have to shuffle laterally to catch them.  This could present a HUGE problem for Wisconsin.  On the flipside, if Wisconsin's defensive middle can penetrate and speed up the decision making process out of the option for Darron Thomas, Oregon could be in big, big trouble.  Of course, if Wisconsin brings the house up the gut, there's going to be something available in the flat, likely Barner/Huff/DAT, in which case, Oregon could really exploit the lack of speed on Wisconsin's defense.

Keep in mind, Wisconsin played one team this year with a top 10 offense:  Northern Illinois.  Yes, the champs of the mighty MAC conference.  Skewed statistics make Wiscy's defense look awfully stout.

There's going to be a big play in the game, and odds are it's happening in the return game for Oregon.  Likely with the ball in the hands of DeAnthony Thomas.  He's the ultimate X-Factor, and is a threat to go all the way everytime he touches the ball simply because there's no one on the field who can match his speed.

My prediction is Oregon 36, Wisconsin 28.  The game will be close, but the lack of depth on Wisconsin's defense will plague them late, as they can't catch their breath against an incredibly well-conditioned Ducks offense.

It has begun...

And we find ourselves here, now, preparing to dive into the mind of an overworked, underachieving sports fanatic who just happens to love to be in the kitchen.  It's a odd paradox of culinary experimentation and over the top loyalty to teams/players/coaches I will never actually meet.  It's about talking about a team in the first person plural, "we", while never donning a uniform.  I can't promise it will be witty, or informative, or you'll even like what I'm writing, but it's here, and it's happening...